The development of crude oil prices on the global market over the last few years has shown significant fluctuations. The price of crude oil, which is one of the world’s most important commodities, is influenced by various factors, including demand and supply, political circumstances, and global economic conditions. In 2020, crude oil prices experienced a drastic decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic. When many countries implemented lockdowns, energy demand fell sharply, leading to a supply surplus. WTI oil prices even fell below zero in April 2020, creating history in oil trading. However, in 2021, the market is starting to recover as vaccines roll out and economic activity recovers. Since mid-2021, crude oil prices have gradually risen again, driven by recovering demand from the transportation and industrial sectors. Major rivals, such as OPEC+, are seeking to control production to support prices. The production cut policy implemented by OPEC+ member countries has succeeded in reducing the supply surplus and pushing up oil prices. In 2022, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, particularly Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, had a major impact on crude oil prices. Sanctions on Russia, one of the largest oil producers, have raised concerns about global supply adequacy. Brent oil prices peaked above $120 per barrel in March 2022, reflecting market uncertainty. Another factor that contributes to the development of crude oil prices is the global energy transition. Many countries are starting to switch to renewable energy and are trying to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. These changes raise questions about the long-term future of oil demand. In addition, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, especially the US dollar, also have an impact. Oil prices are generally priced in dollars, so changes in exchange rates can affect the purchasing power of oil importing countries. An interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve added pressure to oil prices, as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Future predictions show that crude oil prices remain volatile. Demand for the rest of 2023 is expected to increase as the global economy fully recovers, while supply challenges, including geopolitical tensions and natural disasters, remain. With the potential for increased demand from Asia, particularly China and India, the crude oil market will continue to be a dynamic arena. In conclusion, the development of crude oil prices in the global market is the product of a complex interaction of various factors, which reflect the state of the world economy and energy policies. Investors and market participants must remain alert to these changes in order to adapt quickly in their investment strategies.
